Life After HavelIn the race to replace the Velvet President, an appropriate touch of the absurd.
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On January 15, as Václav Havel’s third and last presidential term draws to a close, Czech MPs will kick off the first of what may be many rounds of a political ball game to determine the next Czech president. There are now four official candidates for the first stage of the process, with several other potential contenders hanging out on the sidelines, all expressing a willingness to join the race at a later stage. Apart from one woman who hasn’t yet confirmed her candidacy, the actors – in what will probably turn out to be a Havel-style absurd drama with a touch of slapstick comedy – are all men. Warning signs point to trouble. Too much political deadlock in the wake of Havel’s departure may ultimately necessitate a change in the electoral system as well as extend the playwright-president’s influence on presidential politics after he leaves office. The upcoming ballot is an important moment. It promises not only to place the Czech system of presidential elections under a harsh light, but it will also test the internal unity of the governing political parties and their fragile alliance. The fact that it will not be the people of the country themselves who decide on Havel’s successor hasn’t stopped media agencies from carrying out opinion polls. In the latest survey by SC&C, Václav Klaus of the Civic Democrats (ODS) is well ahead with 32.5%, followed by the Christian Democrat (KDU-ÈSL) candidate Petr Pithart with 23.3% and the Social Democrats’ Jaroslav Bure In the peculiar Czech electoral system, separate ballots will be held in each of the two houses of Parliament. In order to be elected outright in the first round, a candidate would have to get a majority in both the Lower House (101 votes) and the Senate (41 votes). The only candidate likely to come out at least partially victorious in the first round is former dissident and post-89 premier of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic, Petr Pithart. But he is only likely to succeed in the Senate where his own party, KDU-ÈSL, and its coalition partner US-DEU, hold an unassailable position. The expected result in the Lower House is much less clear and the vote may end with an outright fiasco. If no one achieves an overall majority, the date will be set for another round of the ballot. The entire process will then start from scratch. Though it would seem logical that the two contenders with most votes overall should go head-to-head in the second round, this is not necessarily the case. In fact, new candidates may then be brought forward. Individual political parties might call on their own new candidates, as may be the case with Milo The run up to the ballot has already stirred up muddy political waters, and much mudslinging lies ahead. The Social Democrats have been worst hit by pre-election wrangles, which threaten to send the party into disarray. Most notably, the run-up to the ballot has exposed major differences between former premier Milo Of course, all this may just amount to some bizarre political trickery that is part of a sophisticated Social Democratic strategy. More likely, though, it’s just the opening act of a hitherto unrivalled political farce. It now turns out that Initially, Otakar Motejl was seen as one of the strongest contenders. A professional lawyer, he became the presiding judge of the High Court in Prague in 1968, but left the office in 1970, following the events of the Prague Spring. Until 1990 he worked as a solicitor, gaining significant moral credit by acting as defence lawyer for a number of dissidents, unofficial culture figures and independent activists. After 1989 he became the presiding judge of the Supreme Court of the Czech Republic and for two years he was Czech Justice Minister. Significantly, he is also seen as one of the least politically motivated potential candidates and in this respect is closest to Havel’s supreme apoliticism. At one point in November, Motejl led in the opinion polls with an astounding 81%. After a series of political mishaps that have seen his popularity plunge, he is now being rather more guarded about his possible candidature, saying only that he will consider standing if called on by a broad spectrum of political parties. The most serious blow to Motejl’s chances was his own admission that twenty years ago he had been involved in a serious car accident that resulted in the death of one person. In an interview for Lidové Noviny, Milo So far, politicians, the media and the candidates themselves have devoted more time to political sleaze than to the strategies and policies that should be pursued by the presidential office. This is not such a surprise. After all, Havel’s apparently spotless moral standing has been one of his greatest assets. The only candidate that comes anywhere near Havel in this respect is his fellow former dissident and Charter 77 signatory Petr Pithart. But even his past is far from unblemished. To begin with, in the ’60s he was a member of the Communist Party, although he was expelled at the beginning of the post-68 era of normalization and became a prominent dissident. Much less impressive was Pithart’s political career after the Velvet Revolution of 1989. During his two-year spell as the Prime Minister of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic, his inability to make resolute decisions proved to be disastrous and almost killed his political career. He finally found his niche as leader of the Senate, a position that doesn’t require much decisiveness. If Pithart’s moral credentials don’t match those of Václav Havel, those of the ÈSSD candidate Bure Bure Besides his moral authority, Havel’s greatest strength is his international reputation. For many, Havel is the man who brought a new moral and intellectual dimension to international politics. Not even his most staunch domestic opponents can deny the enormous amount of work that he has done on behalf of the Czech Republic abroad, and the current candidates are well aware of this. In a rather calm confrontation with Bure Of the first round candidates, the only person with diplomatic experience comparable to Havel’s is his long-term adversary Václav Klaus. Though well known in the international domain, he is not exactly the world’s darling, though he did become Margaret Thatcher’s little plaything (she was on her way into retirement by then, however). During his long reign as Czech Prime Minister, the liberal economy ideologue became infamous for his scathing and arrogant comments concerning the European Union, for example. German Chance-llor Helmut Kohl had an antipathy towards him that bordered on aversion, though apparently Klaus did not reciprocate this. If Klaus has at times lacked diplomatic sensitivity, Milo It was not the first of Zeman’s diplomatic howlers. He once used the word “idiots” in connection with Austrians voting against the completion of the Temelín nuclear power plant. From a PR point of view, the prospect of Zeman at the helm of the Castle is a frightening one indeed. Probably the most controversial subject during Havel’s time in office has been the granting of presidential pardons. Though many of his pardons have made good sense, in the recent pre-Christmas batch Havel suspended the prison sentences of two drunk-drivers and a policeman who embezzled money from a pensioner. Bure The issue of pardons is one that is related to the scope of presidential powers in general. None of the candidates have so far been bold enough to suggest that these should be extended. In an interview for MF DNES, Klaus said: “I state categorically: even though many try to say that I think otherwise, I don’t think that there should be any strengthening of presidential powers. I really am an advocate of the key role of the Prime Minister. In fact I think that in our country the president has more functions and powers than he should in a non-presidential system.” On a more specific note, Bure If a president is not elected by February 3, when Havel’s term in office ends, the presidential powers will be temporarily divided between the Prime Minister and the Chairman of Parliament. MPs will then be under a great deal of pressure to pass and act of Parliament that will change the system to a plebiscite. Over the past thirteen years, Havel has been the only viable presidential candidate. Though some might try to argue to the contrary, most agree that despite some ups and downs in popularity, Havel would have succeeded equally well if put before the people. In a recent survey by TNS Factum, 87% of Czechs asked are currently in favour of a plebiscite, and long-term surveys show that this has been the case for many years. Given the current political forces in Parliament, the chances that the people’s consistent favorite, Václav Klaus, seen by many as the only person with stature equal to Havel’s, will be elected by parliament are quite slim. A plebiscite, on the other hand, would make him the outright favorite. In addition, it is becoming quite clear that as time goes on, the kind of post-communist moral authority associated with the persona of Václav Havel will become increasingly rare. More importantly, perhaps, it can no longer be the key criterion for selecting an adequate person to perform the function of president. The times are changing rapidly. In his New Year address to the nation, Havel said the next president should be “wise, frank and responsible.” More recently, at a farewell party for diplomats, he expressed hope that he would be replaced by someone who is “vibrant, younger, more healthy.” Maybe. But as one Czech commentator put it, the current line-up of candidates suggests that the presidential office will become “a dump for wasted politicians.” And it seems Havel’s exit is setting the scene for an absurd drama starring several ambitious men eager to own that dump. |
Article added on Tue 14th Jan, 2003 [last updated Thu 6th Oct, 2005]Share this page 
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